VIEW$ TO U($E)

INSIDERS PORTFOLIO JAN 25, 2010

2010-01-25T15:23:00.001-05:00

INSIDERS PTF: SHORT KILROY REALTY (KRC)

2010-01-22T10:30:00.001-05:00

Sold short 160 KRC @ 31.20

INSIDERS PORTFOLIO JAN 20, 2010

2010-01-20T12:16:00.001-05:00

INSIDERS PTF: SHORT SBA COMMUNICATIONS (SBAC)

2010-01-20T12:13:00.002-05:00

Sold short 140 SBAC @ $36.20

THE VTU-INSIDERS PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

2010-01-05T15:25:00.002-05:00

Corporate insiders have a great advantage over other investors: they know their company better and they know what’s happening in real time. Insider transactions, by themselves, are not a reason to buy or sell a stock, however. They only alert me to do some fundamental work to see if there is an opportunity to make money.
I have set up a personal portfolio to do just that. I monitor insider transactions in the US and Canada. When significant transactions pop up, I check the fundamentals of the company. If the fundamentals justify action, I then check some technical factors to make sure that I am not going too much against the wind.
Each position, long or short, of about $5000 will be held as long as the technical and/or fundamental factors justify it.
For those who are curious of what I do, I will post my transactions after they are completed. Please, note that this is a real personal portfolio and I will post it here your info only as it is not meant to be buy or sell recommendations.Please read the disclaimer.

For the record, here is how it works:

I monitor insider transactions (as often as practical for me).
I check for trends in transactions, either one individual is making numerous same way transactions over a period or time, or many insiders act the same way at the same time.
Interesting buy/sell candidates are then investigated in a fundamental way. If the fundamentals justify it, the stock is placed on my watch list.
Before transacting, I look at some technical factors to make sure that “the trend is not totally unfriendly”.
The position is reversed when either the technicals or the fundamentals reverse.

SHORT TOLL BROTHERS (TOL)

2010-01-04T12:11:00.000-05:00

Sold short 260 TOL

LONG AZURE DYNAMICS (AZD.TO)

2010-01-04T12:10:00.001-05:00

Bought 22,000 AZD @ C$0.18

THE VTU-INCOME/GROWTH PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

2010-01-01T16:35:00.002-05:00

My Income/Growth Portfolio (IGP) has the following objectives:

generate above average dividend income
provide reasonable growth potential
preserve capital when market conditions are unfavorable

My IGP is constructed in the following manner:

I want to own good yielding stocks of relatively large companies which are highly profitable and where profits are trending up. I scan over 2000 US listed stocks, ranking stocks based on the following criteria:
- Return on equity
- Return on assets
- Dividend yield relative to industry peers
- Earnings revisions
- Market capitalization
From my initial screen, I pick the 20 best names that have a Value Line Timeliness rank and a Value Line Safety rank of 3 or better and assign an initial 4% weight target for each stock.
Each stock weight is then adjusted in the following manner:

A Value Line Timeliness rank of 1 = +2.0% wt
A Value Line Timeliness rank of 2 = +1.0% wt
If no VL Timeliness rank = –1.0% wt
Zacks rankings:
- #1 = +2.0% wt
- #2 = +1.0% wt
- #4 = –2.0% wt
- #5 = out
If a stock is also part of Zacks Growth & Income or of Zacks Timely Buy portfolio = +1.0% wt
Value Line Technical rank:
- #1 = +2.0% wt
- #2 = +1.0% wt
- #4 = –2.0% wt
- #5 = out

Each stock weight in the portfolio can thus vary between 2.0% (set minimum weight) and 8.0% (set maximum weight). Cash is raised by weight reductions (or stock eliminations when rank = 5) stemming from less attractive technical ranking from Zacks and Value Line. This is a timing tool to prevent being fully invested in poor markets.

In effect, with 20 stocks at 4% each, I start with a portfolio that is 80% invested. This can increase if particular stocks offer more positive fundamental (Value Line and Zacks ranking) or technical characteristics. It can also on poor technical trends, helping preserve capital in poor markets.

Screens are done regularly and adjustments are made immediately when a stock condition changes. I will post transactions after completion for your information only.
Please note that this is a real portfolio for my own personal use, that I post for your information only. In no way it is meant to recommend buying or selling any securities. Please read the disclaimer.

DISCLAIMER

2010-01-01T06:54:00.000-05:00

Fidanza Publishing, News-to-use.com, Views-to-use.com publish news, information, gossip, rumors, conjecture, opinions, analysis commentary and investment portfolios. The site includes both reported and edited content and unmoderated posts and comments containing the personal opinions of readers on a wide range of topics. You should be skeptical of any information on these sites, because it may be wrong.

Fidanza Publishing, News-to-use.com, Views-to-use.com do not routinely moderate, screen, or edit content contributed by readers. The Site and any information therein is provided without warranty of any kind, including the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for use of a particular purpose, accuracy, or non-infringement.

Fidanza Publishing, News-to-use.com, Views-to-use.com does not guarantee that the site will operate in an uninterrupted or error-free manner or is free of viruses or other harmful components. Use of information obtained from or through the Site is at your own risk. The Site is not liable for any loss or damages including, but not limited to, claims for defamation, errors, loss of data, loss of money, or interruption in availability of data arising out of the use or inability to use the Site or any links; to your placement of content on the Site; or to your reliance upon information obtained from or through the Site or through links contained on the Site.

The Site is not an intermediary, broker/dealer, investment advisor, or exchange and does not provide services as such. Portfolios presented are Denis Ouellet’s own personal portfolios and are presented for your information only without any other guarantee, including the guarantee that the portfolios will be updated in a regular and timely manner or that the transactions will be published at any given time after they are effected in the portfolios.

ABOUT ME

2010-01-01T06:41:00.000-05:00

I have been involved in the Financial sector since 1975. Now retired, I am a part-time blogger. From 2006 to 2008, I was Equity manager for a hedge fund organization. Between 2002 and 2006 I was chairman of the equity investment committee of a large pension and mutual fund investment organization.

My career began in 1975 as a financial analyst for a brokerage company where I also served as head of research from 1979-1984. From 1984-1987, I was in charge of all equity investments at a major pension fund. From 1987 to 1992, I headed the North American equity investment portfolio of a pension fund. During the following 10 years, I ran various equity funds for major investment consultants.

I started blogging in January 2009 to share info and views with friends and organize and archive pertinent information. I was also eager to understand the blogosphere and the technicals behind blogging.

My other blog, News-to-use.com, publishes economic and financial news and info as well as original research and ideas that are material and practicle to investors, pruning out from the smorgasborg of available news and info those that are not conducive to investment action.

Denis Ouellet

CHANGES TO THE VTU INCOME PORTFOLIO

2009-12-29T11:49:00.001-05:00

Some important changes this week:

Sold CAT and bough CL due to screening system.
Raised some 5% in cash due to several downgrades in VL Technical or Zacks ranking.

The Income portfolio is up 7.9% (ex-dividends) since inception in mid-October. The S&P 500 Index is up 3.1% during the same period.

INCOME PORTFOLIO UPDATE

2009-12-21T16:05:00.001-05:00

The important changes to the portfolio are the following ones:

I doubled the position in NTRI after upgrades in both Zacks and VL.
I added to positions in GSK, K, LLY following technical improvements.
I reduced positions in BMY and MCD due to technical downgrades.
I sold nearly half of the PEP after Zacks downgraded the stock to 4.

The portfolio yields 3.7% and has virtually no cash at present.

VTU INCOME PORTFOLIO CHANGES

2009-12-11T11:15:00.001-05:00

The Income portfolio continues to do well. It is up 6.4% in value since inception on Oct. 14, 2009 plus dividends. The S&P 500 Index is up 1.67% during the same period.

The portfolio has 2.8% in cash and yields 3.7% at market values.

Changes that were made are:

BT, MMM and ABT were sold as they failed the screen.

New stocks added were Caterpillar (CAT), Nutri System (NTRI) and Southern Copper (PCU).

Additions were made to BMY, BP, BTI, K,KMB and PM.

Reductions were made in GSK,JNJ and PEP.

VTU INCOME PORTFOLIO CHANGES

2009-11-18T12:01:00.001-05:00

The income portfolio is performing well and technical ratings have improved for many stocks lately. This is forcing me to modify certain rules so that the fund does not get on margin.

The new rules are that a VL technical rank of 4 or a Zacks rank of 4 now command a 2.0% cut in the initial target weight of 5.0%. The same if a stock has no VL rating.

The portfolio has been adjusted accordingly.

Major transactions were:

CL has been sold since it failed the screen.

2 new stocks:

BP @ 3.0%

MMM @ 6.0%

Trims (yellow) or additions (greens) were made to several stocks. See the list below.

The portfolio has 1.9% in cash. The yield will be adjusted soon.

VTU INCOME PORTFOLIO

2009-11-09T08:46:00.001-05:00

Three changes:

K reduced to 5% due to Zacks rank decline.
JNJ increased to 5.5% due to Zacks rank gain.
KMK reduced to 5.0% due to VL technical rank decline.

Cash is now 1.9% of portfolio.

VTU INCOME PORTFOLIO UPDATE

2009-11-02T17:37:00.001-05:00

Few changes this week:

Sell 0.5% in CL, INTC and YUM on small downgrades from Zacks and VL.
Buy 0.5% in BTI following an upgrade in VL technical rank.

VTU INCOME PORTFOLIO CHANGES

2009-10-24T11:29:00.001-04:00

The VTU INCOME portfolio is investing most of the cash it held a week ago as many stocks’ VL Technical rank improved.

Additions to existing positions:

BTI: + 1.0% due to technical rank improvement
CL: idem
JNJ: idem
KMB: idem
LLY: idem
PEP: idem
MCD: + 0.5% due to Zacks rank improvement

Reductions of existing positions:

GSK: – 0.5% due to Zacks rank downgrade
INTC: – 0.5% due to VL technical rank downgrade more than offsetting a VL Timeliness improvement.

New positions:

5.5% in Kellogg
5.0% in Abbott Laboratories

Stocks sold:

Unilever due to stock failing the screen.

The portfolio now has 4.6% in cash. The equity positions yield 3.8%.

CHANGES TO VTU EVEM PORTFOLIO

2009-10-19T13:57:00.001-04:00

Two stocks were sold out after failing the screen.

Rovi Corp.
Nobel Corp.

New stocks added:

JP Morgan Chase: 5.0%
Valeant Pharma: 4.0%
Scholastic Corp: 6.5%
Annaly Capital Mngt: 3.5%

The following positions were reduced:

NTAP: reduced 2.0% due to declining technicals
HELE: reduced 0.5% due to a drop in VL Timeliness rank.

KMX was raised 2.0% due to improved technicals.

The cash position declined from 11.5% to 3.4%.

The VTU EVEM portfolio declined 0.8% last week.

RAISING CASH IN INCOME PORTFOLIO

2009-10-19T11:59:00.001-04:00

The VTU Income portfolio gained 0.9% last week.

Deteriorating technical rankings dictate sales and profit taking in many positions. The following positions were sold:

Abbott Labs: VL technical rank dropped to 5.
Bristol-Myers Squibb: idem
Unilever: fail screen.

These positions were reduced:

BTI: reduced 0.5% due to technicals
JNJ: idem
KMB: idem
LO: reduced 0.5% due to Zacks rank decline.
CL: reduced 0.5% due to worsening technicals more than offsetting improved Zacks ranking.

New position: 5.5% in Intel.

These positions were raised:

ACL: raised 0.5% due to improved technicals.

As a result, the VTU Income portfolio now has 17 stocks and 22.9% in cash.

VTU HIGH TORQUE PORTFOLIO

2009-10-15T11:27:00.001-04:00

The VTU High Torque portfolio buys only the very top rated stocks in the VM portfolio. Equally weighted.

VTU VM PORTFOLIO AS OF OCT 14 2009

2009-10-15T10:40:00.001-04:00

My Value-Momentum portfolio has 11.5% in cash.

VTU INCOME PORTFOLIO 14-OCT-2009

2009-10-14T15:26:00.001-04:00

My VTU INCOME portfolio has 9.4% in cash. The equity portion yields 4.0% at current market values.

VTU-VALUE/MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

2009-10-05T14:07:00.002-04:00

My Value-Momentum portfolio is constructed with 2 separate screens on over 2000 stocks. It combines 10 stocks with low PE ratios with 10 stocks with high earnings momentum:

The Value section includes stocks with low PEs on trailing EPS and below average absolute and industry relative PEs on current estimates. Quarterly earnings growth, earnings surprise and earnings revisions must all be positive.
The Earnings Momentum section includes stocks of profitable companies with positive earnings momentum. Earnings surprise and earnings revisions are highly valued in this screen since price volatility is high. Positive share price momentum is also required.
I pick the 10 best names from each screen and assign an initial 5% weight target for each stock.
Each stock weight is then adjusted in the following way:

Value Line Timeliness rank:

#1 = +1.0% wt (100 basis points)
#2 = +0.5% wt
#4 & 5 = out
No VL Timeliness rank = –1.0% wt

Zacks rankings:

#1 = +1.0% wt
#2 = +0.5% wt
#4 & 5 = out

If a stock is also part of Zacks Timely Buys = +1.0% wt
Value Line Technical rank:
- #4 = –2.0% wt
- #5 = out
Value Line Safety Rank

#4 & 5 = out

Each stock weight in the portfolio can thus vary between 2.0% and 8.0%. Cash is raised by weight reductions (or stock eliminations when rank is below minimum requirement) stemming from less attractive technical ranking from Zacks and Value Line. This is a timing tool to prevent being fully invested in toppish and poor markets. No use of margin: stock holdings will be reduced to avoid use of margin, trimming low VL technical rank followed by VL Timeliness #3 ranks.

Screens are done very regularly (daily when possible) and adjustments are made immediately when a stock condition changes. Rebalancing is done when actual weight is more than 50 basis points away from target.
Portfolio changes will be posted as soon as possible after the transaction is realized.

THE VTU-INCOME PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

2009-10-02T12:17:00.003-04:00

My Income portfolio is constructed in the following manner:

I want to own good yielding stocks of relatively large companies which are highly profitable and where profits are trending up. I scan over 2000 US listed stocks, ranking stocks based on the following criteria:

Return on equity
Return on assets
Dividend yield relative to industry peers
Earnings revisions
Market capitalization

I pick the 20 best names that have a Value Line Timeliness rank and a Value Line Safety rank of 3 or better and assign an initial 5% weight target for each stock.
Each stock weight is then adjusted in the following way:

A Value Line Timeliness rank of 1 = +1.0% wt
A Value Line Timeliness rank of 2 = +0.5% wt
If no VL Timeliness rank = –2.0% wt
Zacks rankings:

#1 = +1.0% wt
#2 = +0.5% wt
#4 = –2.0% wt
#5 = out

If a stock is also part of Zacks Growth & Income portfolio = +0.5% wt
Value Line Technical rank:

#1 = +1.0% wt
#2 = +0.5% wt
#4 = –2.0% wt
#5 = out

Each stock weight in the portfolio can thus vary between 2.0% and 8.0%. Cash is raised by weight reductions (or stock eliminations when rank = 5) stemming from less attractive technical ranking from Zacks and Value Line. This is a timing tool to prevent being fully invested in poor markets.
Screens are done very regularly (daily when possible) and adjustments are made immediately when a stock condition changes.